NY21: Divided Democratic field leaves Stefanik in strong position
There are a lot of big disagreements on the left in New York state with Democrats divided over the future of their party and their movement. That...
Apr 16, 2018 — There are a lot of big disagreements on the left in New York state with Democrats divided over the future of their party and their movement. That extends to the North Country's congressional race. There will be seven Democratic challengers in the New York 21 House primary right up through the end of June.
Brian Mann joined Martha Foley to talk about the state of politics half a year out from the November election.
Martha: So there was some thinking that the petitioning process might thin the pack a little, but no. Seven Democrats are going for it.
Brian: That's right. The theory seems to be that this is kind of a jump ball right now, anyone could win it. The petition process showed Tedra Cobb from Canton getting the most signatures, she seems to have a pretty strong grassroots network in place. But most of these candidates have pockets of strong support.
Martha: The Sun Community News reported over the weekend that Tedra Cobb's campaign is challenging the petitions of some of the other Democratic candidates - effectively challenging whether they belong on the ballot. What's up there?
Brian: The Cobb campaign is describing this as kind of business as usual, a pro forma effort to make sure everything's square. But this is already sparking anger from some of the other candidates. Katie Wilson has tweeted a couple of times at Cobb suggesting that her goal is to "undermine her fellow candidates." But Wilson herself has declined to confirm whether she'll support the eventual nominee if it's someone other than herself. So there's a real danger here for Democrats that this already thinly sliced primary could get really divisive.
Martha: The primary is in June. The Democrat who emerges will have a four-month sprint to election day. What will that look like?
Brian: Well, there are two problems here. First, the Democratic challenger has to find a weak spot in Elise Stefanik, some narrative that will cause a lot of people to rethink their vote for her. That's hard to do when you're focused right up until the end on other Democrats. The other challenge is what happens behind the scenes. The candidate who wins this primary will have to build a big organization that can work across a huge congressional district, one that's divided into really distinct regions. They'll also have to unite all these different factions, and raise a ton of money and maybe even get national Democrats around the country to buy in with campaign cash. That would be a big lift starting right now. Starting basically July 1? That's a very narrow window.
Martha: We should mention that Green Party candidate Lynn Kahn will also be on the ballot. She's from Schroon Lake, a newcomer to North Country politics. Meanwhile, it appears that Elise Stefanik won't face a primary challenge on the Republican side. Russ Finley doesn't appear to have filed petitions last week, according to the state Board of Elections.
Brian: That's right. What this means is that Stefanik now has seven full months to campaign at the pace she sets. She doesn't have a challenger to take her off message or push her to the right or left. She's got more than a million dollars to spend on ads and she has the power of incumbency to keep herself in the public eye. Expect a lot of ribbon cuttings, a lot of public events. This is likely to be a tough year for Republicans and Stefanik has come in for a huge amount of criticism from social media. But it's hard to imagine her being in a better position a little more than half a year out.
Brian Mann is NCPR's Adirondack bureau chief and follows politics closely. He spoke with News Director and Eight O'clock Hour host Martha Foley.
